تحلیل و پیش‌بینی اقلیم استان گیلان با استفاده از سری زمانی گاهشناسی درختی در مخاطرات تولید بذر گیاهان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی سینوپتیک دانشکده جغرافیا دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

2 استاد دانشکده جغرافیا دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار دانشکده جغرافیا دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

آگاهی از چگونگی روند تغییر اقلیم، گرمایش جهان و پیش­بینی این تغییرات در مقیاس­های مختلف، از مسائل بسیار مهمی است که مورد توجه دانشمندان حوزه­های مختلف علوم قرار گرفته است. استان گیلان با شرایط اقلیمی و حاصلخیزی خوب اراضی از تولیدکننده­های مهم محصولات کشاورزی است. اقلیم­شناسی درختی می­تواند وقایع و رویدادهای گذشته آب هوایی را نشان دهد. اندازه قطری حلقه­های رشد سالانه درختان سری زمانی را تشکیل می­دهند. سری زمانی 202 (1396-1195) ساله از گاهشناسی درختان راش تهیه شد. در این تحقیق از سری­های زمانی و بهره­گیری از مدل­سازی به روش باکس – جنکینز با تاکید بر مدل­های  ARIMAاستفاده گردید. برای انتخاب بهترین مدل پیش­بینی از معیار آزمون خطای باقیمانده استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که، سری زمانی با مدل  ARIMA (1,1,1)بهترین برازش را داشته و به­عنوان مدلی مناسب برای پیش­بینی تعیین و برای پیش­بینی 10 سال آینده استفاده شد. نتایج نشان­دهنده کاهش روند رشد حلقه­های سالانه برای 10 سال آینده می­باشد. عنصر اقلیمی بارش سالانه در ایستگاه منطقه مطالعاتی و ایستگاه­های همجوار دارای روندی کاهشی و منفی، میانگین دماهای کمینه، متوسط و بیشینه افزایشی و برای فصل رویش گیاهان معنی­دار بودند. تغییرات در عوامل اقلیمی می­تواند علت کاهش رشد دوایر باشد و در صورت تداوم تهدیدی برای جنگل­های هیرکانی بوده و همچنین می­توانند محصولات باغی - زراعی استان و امنیت غذایی را نیز تحت­الشعاع قرار داده و گواهی بر بروز تغییر اقلیم در استان گیلان باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate forecast in Guilan province using tree chronology and time series analysis at risks of plant seed production

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farzad shirzad 1
  • Bohloul Alijani 2
  • Mehry Akbary 3
  • Mohammd Saligheh 3
1 PhD student of Geographia faculty Kharazmi university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Geographia faculty Kharazmi university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor. of Geographia faculty Kharazmi university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Global warming and climate change are very important issues of the last century, which have been considered by scientists in various fields of science. The Hyrcanian forest is one of the oldest and most historic habitats of the world's deciduous trees. Beech trees are one of the valuable industrial species with a lifespan of 200 to 300 years. The science of tree chronology can show past weather events. The diameter of the annual growth rings of the trees forms a time series. With this method, a time series of 202 (1816-2017) years was obtained from the diameter of the growth rings of beech trees.Researchers are always thinking about the future. This study uses time series of growth rings of forest beech trees and analyzes it.And the use of modeling based on the Box-Jenkins method with emphasis on ARIMA models were examined. The results showed, Time series with ARIMA model (1,1,1) had the best fit, at the 95% level, it is significant and the trend forecast has a negative and decreasing slope. Climatic factor of annual precipitation in the regional station and neighboring stations with a decreasing and negative trend The average minimum, middle and maximum average temperatures are increasing. Climate change is reducing growth for Hyrcanian forest trees. It was registered as the second natural heritage of Iran in UNESCO. It will pose a threat to plant and animal communities.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ARIMA Model
  • Climate Change
  • Forcast
  • Time series
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